CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-31T13:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-31T13:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34348/-1
CME Note: Faint, near partial halo CME first seen in the SE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-10-31T13:48Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is brightening and a subsequent eruption from Active Region 3877 (S16E02) beginning at approx. 31/12:51Z. The brightening is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131, along with the eruptive material visible in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, and wide but faint field line movement seen South of the Active Region in SDO AIA 193. This flare brightened in tandem with AR 3875, however AR 3875 was responsible for the majority of the brightening and is there for the associated Active Region for the event.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-11-03T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-03T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.33 - 3.67
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs
CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):
Notes:
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 Nov 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 02-Nov 04 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 02-Nov 04 2024
Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04
00-03UT 0.67 2.67 3.67
03-06UT 1.00 3.00 2.67
06-09UT 1.67 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 4.00 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 4.00 2.33 1.67
15-18UT 2.67 2.67 1.67
18-21UT 2.67 3.67 1.67
21-00UT 3.67 3.67 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 02-Nov 04 2024
Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04
S1 or greater 50% 30% 30%
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
remain elevated but below the threshold over 02-04 Nov.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 01 2024 1431 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 02-Nov 04 2024
Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 35% 35% 35%
Rationale: M-class (R1-minor) are expected, with a chance for X-class
(R3-strong), through 04 Nov.
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Nov 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. The largest event was an X2.0/3b
flare (R3-Strong) at 31/2120 UTC from Region 3878 (N16E09,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta). In addition, five M-class flares (R1-Minor) were
observed from Regions 3875 (N28W55, Dai/beta-gamma), 3876 (S06W60,
Dki/beta-gamma), and 3878. Growth was observed in Regions 3875 and 3876,
and new Region 3880 (S13E41, Bxo/beta) was numbered. The remaining
regions were either stable or in decay. Analysis of a CME associated
with flaring from Region 3877 (S16W18, Axx/alpha) at around 31/1252 UTC
resulted in a possible glancing blow on 03 Nov. Analysis of a possible
CME from a Type IV radio sweep associated with flaring from 3876 is
waiting on available imagery.
.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-Minor) are expected, with a chance for X-class flares
(R3-Strong), through 03 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux persisted at S1 (Minor) levels for
the first half of the period before fluctuating around the threshold
value for the remainder of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux was at normal to moderate levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to cross below the S1
(Minor) threshold during 01 Nov and remain elevated but below the
threshold over 02-03 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 03 Nov.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Enhanced solar wind conditions prevailed through much of the period,
with an increase in interplanetary magnetic field observed late in the
day. Total field strength reached 10 nT and the Bz component reached -9
nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 450-600 km/s. The phi angle was
predominately negative.
.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 01 Nov. Mildly
enhanced solar wind parameters are likely on 02 Nov due to positive
polarity CH HSS influences. Weakly enhanced conditions are expected on
03 Nov due to continued, but waning CH HSS influences and the possible
glancing blow arrival of the 31 Oct CME.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet and active.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 01 Nov. Quiet to
active levels are likely on 02 Nov due to positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Quiet to active levels are likely on 03 Nov due to
continued, but waning CH HSS influences and the possible glancing blow
arrival of a CME from 31 Oct.
Lead Time: 69.10 hour(s)Difference: -1.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-10-31T19:41Z
CCMC
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